(building Econometric model for macroeconomic policies in Iraq for the period 2004-2020)

Abstract

Abstract: The results showed that the standard model in this research was identical with the economic theory and is compatible with the Iraqi economy, and that the signals of the estimated parameters are identical with many similar standard studies, that the estimation using the apparently unrelated system of equations has achieved more accurate and highly efficient results than (OLS). ), and that the variable of private consumption spending for the previous year had a significant and clear impact on current consumer spending and previous consumption habits and consumption pattern that has a greater impact than the effect of income on private consumption spending, and the results of the private investment spending equation show that the main constraint on private investment in Iraq It is the rise in interest rates on long-term lending, as we find that it has a significant adverse effect on private investment spending, and that oil revenues had a clear and significant impact on the export equation, and the results of the employment equation showed that the effect of the real wage is equivalent to more than one and a half times the effect of disposable income, and showed The results of the public spending equation is that it depends largely on oil revenues. The results of the foreign reserve equation showed the effect of the net balancer. The general budget over the foreign reserve, as when there is a surplus in the net budget, a large part of it will go to the foreign reserve.