استخدام السالسل الزمنية ) نماذج التمهيد االسي ونماذج االتجاه العام ( لمتنبؤ بانتاج بعض المحاصيل الخضرية في العراق

Abstract

Abstract That the crops are very important to the Iraqi people because they are the basis of the Iraqi table, including cucumbers and tomatoes, and here we have to pay attention to the productivity of these crops to reach self-sufficiency, especially since the diversity of Iraq's climate and soil makes the production process suitable throughout the year and provide all the inputs that contribute to The development and quality of local production increases the production of these crops, In order to develop the cultivation of these crops in Iraq, all problems related to their cultivation and root processing must be solved, and the production of large quantities of seeds, fertilizers, expertise and others should be provided to achieve self-sufficiency. Time series analysis is to be used for planning and future programs. Knowledge of the development of the phenomenon by studying its components from the general trend, seasonal and periodic with time and predicting what happens to it in the future according to past and present events, The prediction process is of great importance for the knowledge of the needs of this product in the near and long term. There are several methods of prediction, the most important of which is the time series method. In our research, one of the analysis models for the time series is the exponential models of the second quadratic model.