قياس اثر بعض المتغيرات الاقتصادية في انتاج القطاع الزراعي العراق حالة دراسية للمدة (2004-2019)

Abstract

Iraq’s need to develop the agricultural sector stems from the reality of this economy after and before (2003) as a result of the conditions it experienced from wars (the first Gulf war, the second Gulf war), economic sanctions and the occupation of the United States of America, followed by the lack of security stability in large parts of the country and long-term administrative and financial corruption All the joints of the state and its rentier structure dependent on crude oil exports, as the contribution of this sector to the gross domestic product does not exceed 4%. The trend was to activate the Iraqi agricultural sector and this requires knowledge of the obstacles and determinants of this sector and studying the economic variables that affect it through Analysis and measurement, and using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) The results show that the value of the error correction parameter is significant and takes the negative value, i.e. deviations in the short term are corrected in the long term to the equilibrium situation, as the correction parameter The error takes the negative sign and is statistically significant at a level less than (1%), which means that the long-term imbalance is corrected within (1.33) of the day. From . The study recommends the development of a long-term strategy by the state (Ministry of Agriculture) that is clear in terms of vision and goals that include the agricultural reform program and that it takes great interest in it in terms of follow-up and implementation, its goal is to achieve food security, reduce the food gap, increase exports and reduce agricultural imports, and address Problems and obstacles that are characterized by interdependence with other economic sectors