Measuring and analyzing the impact of cooperative agricultural bank loans in supporting agricultural activity: a study in the Iraqi economy for the period 2004-2019

Abstract

The need of the agricultural sector in Iraq for agricultural loans lies as a result of the deterioration and decline of production in this sector in a very large way, due to the internal and external conditions and obstacles to which the economy has been exposed during the past decades, so that the aim of this study is to measure the relationship between agricultural loans and agricultural sector production using a number of tests and standard models. The ARDL- Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model was applied to show the extent of the impact of the Agricultural Cooperative Bank loans on agricultural activity in Iraq for the period (2004-2019), to show that short-term loans have a significant effect at the probability level (%1), And that it is linked to a direct significant relationship with agricultural production in the long term, as the increase of short-term loans by (%100) leads to an increase in agricultural output by (%23), and this agrees with the economic theory and the hypothesis of the study, and that long-term loans have a significant effect, and they It is related to an inverse relationship with agricultural output in the long term. An increase in long-term loans by (%100) leads to a decrease in agricultural output by (%29). This result is a violation of economic theory. Keywords: agricultural activity, short-term loans, long-term loans, ARDL model