""" Building the Box-Jenkins Early Warning Indicator for Financial Crisis Prediction"" (Case Study In Iraqi Financial Sector) "

Abstract

The main objective of the study of the building and analysis of time series models is to identify the phenomenon studied and its components and to try to understand the behavior of economic phenomena through the study of historical data and then the possibility to accurately predict the interpretation of phenomena and relations between variables to put before the economic planner and the decision maker to make a sound decision based on quantitative and scientific In our study, the Box - Jenkins models were theoretically discussed with the construction of an appropriate model for one of the early warning indicators. This study is based on questions about indicators that can be relied upon to describe the financial reality of the bank Especially the variables and indicators of early warning because of their importance in overcoming the reality of financial problems before they occur and enable the financial authorities to control the behavior of the Iraqi economy, while reviewing their relationship with each other and methods of comparison between them according to some statistical measures, so the research reached to build a model for the publisher The mandatory reserve is the ARIMA model (3,0,2). The model generally helps fiscal policy managers predict crises before they occur, especially as Iraq's economy is unilaterally and is often exposed to crises as a result of internal and external factors.